Kamala Harris has taken a three-point lead over Donald Trump in the latest presidential election poll. A survey conducted for NPR, PBS, and Marist shows Harris with 51% of the vote compared to Trump’s 48%. This follows the positive reception to her selection of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate.
Harris has a significant 15-point lead over Trump on the issue of abortion. However, Trump holds a six-point advantage over Harris on illegal immigration, indicating that attacks on her past role as “border czar” are affecting her support in that area.
The poll, conducted between August 1-4, has a margin of error of 3.4%.
Harris’s rise in the polls comes as she secures enough delegates to clinch the Democratic nomination, stepping out of Joe Biden’s shadow. Other national polls also show her leading Trump by similar margins. A SurveyUSA poll puts her ahead by three points (48% to 45%), a University of Massachusetts Amherst poll shows a three-point lead (46% to 43%), and a Morning Consult poll indicates a four-point gap (48% to 44%).
However, some polls suggest a tighter race. A YouGov/CBS News poll shows Harris leading by just one point (50% to 49%). Real Clear Polling’s average of 11 recent polls gives Harris a slight advantage of half a percentage point.
Tatishe Nteta, a political science professor at Amherst, points out that Harris’s lead is significant given that Biden was four points behind Trump in January. Harris’s surge in the polls comes less than two weeks into her candidacy.
“For weeks after the first presidential debate in June, there were calls for Biden to step down. Now, with Biden stepping aside, Harris has emerged as the frontrunner. The Democratic Party must be optimistic about their chances to maintain control of the White House,” Nteta said.
In swing states, the race is tighter. A Fox News poll finds Harris tied with Trump in Pennsylvania. Public Policy Polling shows her trailing by one point in Pennsylvania and Georgia, and by two points in Arizona. FiveThirtyEight reports that Trump is up by two points in Arizona and one point in Georgia, but Harris leads in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, though by narrow margins.
Trump is struggling to counter Harris’s momentum, often resorting to mispronouncing her name or questioning her ethnicity. Meanwhile, Walz’s criticism of Trump and his running mate JD Vance as “weird” seems to resonate with voters.